Showing posts with label Terminology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Terminology. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Stochastics Buy & Sell Signals

How to Read a Stochastic Chart












In addition to giving clear buy and sell signals, the Stochastic technical analysis indicator is also helpful in detecting price divergences and confirming trend.



How to Read a Stochastic Chart

Buy Signal 

When the Stochastic is above the 80 overbought line and the %K line crosses below the %D line, sell.

There are two common ways to interpret these waves. The first is based on when the red and blue lines cross. A potential buy signal is generated when the blue line crosses above the red line, and a potential sell signal is generated when the red line crosses above the blue line.

Sell Signal

When the Stochastic is above the 80 overbought line and the %K line crosses below the %D line, sell.
The second way to translate these charts is based on a reading of the blue line (%K). When %K is at 20 or below, the stock is considered to be oversold . When %K goes above 20, the stock should be bought. On the other hand, when %K is at 80 or above, the stock is considered to beoverbought , and when %K goes below 80, the stock should be sold
Stochastics come in two flavors: fast and slow. Fast stochastics produce more buy and signals than slow stochastics, but some of the signals produced by fast Stochastics may be "false." Slow Stochastics produce fewer, but "stronger" signals.

Stochastic Fast


Stochastic Fast plots the location of the current price in relation to the range of a certain number of prior bars (dependent upon user-input, usually 14-periods). In general, stochastics are used to measure overbought and oversold conditions. Above 80 is generally considered overbought and below 20 is considered oversold. The inputs to Stochastic Fast are as follows:
  • Fast %K: [(Close - Low) / (High - Low)] x 100
  • Fast %D: Simple moving average of Fast K (usually 3-period moving average)

Stochastic Slow

Stochastic Slow is similar in calculation and interpretation to Stochastic Fast. The difference is listed below:
  • Slow %K: Equal to Fast %D (i.e. 3-period moving average of Fast %K)
  • Slow %D: A moving average (again, usually 3-period) of Slow %K



Thursday, August 28, 2014

A low PE portfolio beats the index hands down

IN the last article, we discussed one of the measures used by the market to value stocks – the price-earnings, or PE, ratio. We noted that the market likes high-growth companies and accords them a higher PE ratio.

The higher the price a stock trades at relative to its current earnings, the more difficult it is for it to meet the market’s expectations and the higher the probability its share price will underperform.
In one of my finance courses years back, the lecturer told us that we should distinguish between a growth stock and a growth company.

Most times, growth companies are not growth stocks, because the hype of the growth has been factored into the share price.

Growth stocks, on the other hand, are stocks whose price will grow because they have unappreciated value or business fundamentals. We want to buy growth stocks but not necessarily growth companies.
Using a hypothetical example, we showed how a 21% downgrade in earnings can potentially cause a 62% plunge in stock price in a high PE stock, and how a 10% to 15% upgrade in earnings can lead to a 150% jump in share price for a low PE stock.



So what proof is there that this is actually happening in the market, that buying low PE stocks pays?
Well, I carried out a study of the stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia in the last 24 years.
I ranked all the stocks listed here based on their PEs every year, from stocks with the lowest PE to the highest. The ranking is done at the end of March so as to capture companies with financial year ending Dec 31.

I then clustered them into 10 groups with equal numbers of stocks. Decile 1 is made up of stocks with the lowest PEs. Decile 2 has stocks with the second-lowest PEs, and so on. Stocks with the highest PEs go into Decile 10. I then tracked the performance of these stocks a year later.
Let’s assume that I started with RM1mil in 1990 – RM100,000 to be allocated to each of the 10 baskets of stocks. After doing the ranking on March 30 that year, I used the first RM100,000 and split it equally into all the stocks in Decile 1. The next RM100,000 is allocated equally to stocks in Decile 2 and so on.

At the end of March in 1991, I liquidate all the stocks bought a year ago. Money obtained from the Decile 1 stocks – calculated based on the share price on March 31, 1991 plus the dividends received in that past year – was redeployed into the Decile 1 stocks in the second year. Money from Decile 2 in the first year would be rolled over to the Decile 2 stocks the following year. Similarly for Decile 3 till Decile 10. I keep doing this for the next 23 years.

The accompanying chart shows the performance of the 10 baskets of stocks with the return rolled over for 24 years.

The RM100,000 put into the lowest PE stocks every year would have grown to RM4.3mil. That’s a compounded return of 17% a year. Guess what the bonus is? Low PE stocks on average also have higher dividend yields.

The second basket of stocks, those with the second-lowest PEs, returned 15.7% a year. Not too bad. It grew the original RM100,000 to RM3.3mil. (Please note that all the calculations exclude transaction costs, and yes, a small difference in growth rate translates into a big difference if compounded over the long term.)

How would someone who consistently goes for the high PE, glamour stocks have done? Well, they managed to grow their original RM100,000 to just RM128,600 for a compounded annual return of a mere 1%. That doesn’t even beat inflation and when transaction costs are factored in, he/she would have lost money.



In comparison, buying and holding the FTSE Bursa KLCI from March 1990 until March this year would have yielded you a capital appreciation of about 4.9% a year. Add in dividends of say 3.5% a year, and your RM100,000 invested in the Malaysian stock index would have grown to about RM2mil over that time, with dividends reinvested in the market.

In other words, buying a basket of low PE stocks would allow you to vastly outperform the KLCI.
But note: Some stocks trade at low PEs for a reason. They could be value traps, in that their stock prices would go lower as the company’s operations continue to deteriorate.

Many of the S-chips, or China stocks listed in Singapore, were trading at very low PEs. And as some of you may know, many of them have bombed. Those still listed are trading at very low PEs because the market doesn’t quite trust the numbers due to the poor corporate governance issues of their peers.
Meanwhile, some stocks trade at PE of 100 times or 200 times because they are transitioning from a loss-making patch to profitability.

So when we look at PEs, it is also important to look at the quality of earnings, and the sustainability of the earnings. But all things being equal, holding a basket low PE stocks beats holding a basket of high PE stocks.

In the next article, we will look at another valuation metric used by the market to value stocks – price-to-book value – and we will see how it performs vis-a-vis the low PE strategy.

The author is a partner in Aggregate Asset Management, manager of a no-management fee Asia value fund.

Source : The Star Online

Thursday, March 6, 2014

Pump and Dump

If you've ever researched stocks, you've almost certainly come across a "pump and dump" scheme.
It works like this...
Some person or some group either acquires shares of a company, or is paid to promote a penny stock by someone who already owns shares.
The idea is to give publicity to the stock, thereby attracting other investors to buy.
This is the pump.
If the pump is effective, the amount of new buyers attracted to stock makes the share price start to rise, because there are more buyers than sellers.
But this is only temporary... The dump hasn't come yet.
Once the share prices starts to rise – and enough buyers have been attracted – the original person or group starts selling their shares.
They are selling their cheaply acquired shares at a higher price to those buying during the pump.
Some people make a lot of money from pump and dumps. Others lose it all.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Ten Year Bond Yields


When the yield on the 10 year bond goes up it indicates that the long term interest rates is going up. When interest rates goes up it will affect a lot of investments in the economy. It will affect the stock market, the housing market, credit card, personal loans and so on.

Due to the increased cost of borrowing it will affect investments in the stock market because the margin rate will also increase. It will affect the housing market because less people are willing to commit on new housing and as a result prices will have to come down. For those who have bought they will also be affected due to increased mortgage payments. Hence it will affect the overall economic activity.


Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Stocks and Shares

When you buy stocks or ordinary shares, you own part of the company and have the right to vote at general meetings. Each share is a small stake in a company and you can buy small or large number of lots depending on the amount of money you have.

As a shareholder, you can benefit from the profits earned by the company
in the form of dividends paid to you, and also from the growth in the value of the company.

But why do companies issue shares? The company benefits by raising funds to operate and expand its business without having to borrow the money from other sources such as banks.

You should be aware that there are risks associated with buying shares. When the company performs poorly, its shares may fall in value and you may not receive any dividend. There are other factors such as the performance of the stock market as a whole and the country's economic situation that may affect the price of your shares. It is also possible that you may lose your entire investment if the company goes out of business. There are also shares that are difficult to sell if the demand for them is lacking. It is therefore important that you select the right companies to invest in.

Financial advisers will generally recommend shares as part of an investment portfolio. The aim in trading shares is of course to buy at a low and sell at a high price. For long-term investors, it is important to select shares based on fundamentals, which means investors need to be knowledgeable about the companies in which they plan to invest their savings. It is therefore important that you read and understand the prospectuses, financial reports and corporate announcements, which listed companies are required to issue to the shareholders and the investing public.

In selecting shares, you should examine factors such as the background of the company and its management, its financial strength, price-earning ratio and dividend yield, its earning growth prospect and competitive edge. A wise investor checks out these factors which may affect the price of a stock before putting in his money.

There are also two other types of share issues an investor will come across in trading shares, and they are bonus and rights issues. A bonus issue is the issue of new ordinary shares at no cost to existing shareholders but out of the company's reserves and in direct proportion to their existing shareholding in the company. Bonus issues are used to enlarge the capital base of the company and may also be used as a means of rewarding its existing shareholders. To be entitled to the bonus share, take note of the Ex-Date as only shares bought before the Ex-Date will be entitled to the bonus share.

The period from the day of announcement of the entitlement of bonus or rights issue or dividend to the day before the Ex-Date is commonly referred to as the cum-period. Normally, Cum is a prefix meaning "with." A share that is cum-dividend means the buyer is entitled to a dividend currently attached to it. The same is true for cum-rights and cum-bonus.

A rights issue gives the existing shareholders the right to subscribe for new ordinary shares at an issue price lower than the prevailing market price and at a ratio equivalent to their existing shareholding. Companies carry out a rights issue when they want to raise additional funds to finance their capital requirements.

In offering a rights issue, the company sends out a provisional allotment letter (PAL) to all existing shareholders informing them of the rights issue entitlement. Shareholders are required to follow all the instructions given in the PAL in subscribing their rights for the new shares. If you choose not to exercise your right, remember that the PAL can be sold to the open market (if quoted) or the entitlement can be renounced to someone else.

Often, you will see a category of 'A' Shares listed in the newspapers and investment magazines. The listing of 'A' shares refer to the issue of shares not qualified to entitlements, such as dividends, bonus and rights issues. These shares will later merge with the existing shares after the entitlement date.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Bursa Trade

Bursa Trade is Bursa Malaysia's trading system. It offers greater accessibility, as well as enhanced trading efficiency and transparency in the market. By leveraging on technological innovations, Bursa Trade has numerous features and functions for investors.
Some of the key features of Bursa Trade:

Theoretical Opening Price (TOP)
Investors will be able to have ‘viewing ability’ of the theoretical opening prices for each stock under the pre-opening phase from 8:30am until the market opens for trading at 9am, as well as in the second session. The pre-opening price process enables real-time calculation of stock prices for first matching at opening phase. This allows investors to gauge market sentiment and prices better as the pre-opening period is made transparent. This is particularly useful for new listings.
Theoretical Closing Price (TCP)
This transparency of trading extends to the moment the market is about to end for both the first and second trading sessions. The theoretical closing price feature promotes natural discovery of closing prices for each session.
Trading At Last (TAL)
The last 10 minutes of each session will provide traders with the opportunity to close their positions. Matching will take place at a fixed price which will be either the last done price or the theoretical closing price.
Continuous Trading
Bursa Trade Securities enables real-time and continuous matching of orders compared to 10 seconds matching under the current system. This makes the online trading experience faster and much more responsive.
Five Best Price Limits
Investors would find this feature beneficial as it provides them with a clearer picture of market depth. The five-best price limits give investors more control of their trading decisions as opposed to the three-best price limits that is offered by the current system.
Odd Lots Matching
Investors will now be able to do partial matching for odd lots which makes it more marketable. Odd lots can be partially matched based on price time priority.
Final Settlement Price for FKLI and OKLI
The implementation of Bursa Trade Securities will also have an impact on the derivatives market. There will be a change in the calculation of the Final Settlement Price (FSP) methodology for the derivatives products carrying the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) as the underlying instrument. The products affected will be the KLCI futures (FKLI) and the KLCI options (OKLI). This new methodology makes it less susceptible to market manipulation and smoothens out price volatility.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Transaction Cost

In addition to the cost of the shares bought or sold, the client will have to pay the following charges:

Brokerage Rates

Brokerage is payable by both buyer and seller.
  1. Stocks, ordinary shares, preference shares and other listed securities executed in board lots.
    With effect from 2 January 2008, the brokerage payable for all trades in stocks, ordinary shares, preference shares and other securities listed and traded on the stock market of Bursa Malaysia [but excluding the instruments described in paragraphs (b), (c) and (d) and (e) below] the brokerage payable shall be the minimum prescribed or shall be on a fully negotiated basis between its client, subject to a maximum of 0.70% of the contract value, whichever is higher.
  2. Government bonds, Municipal Debentures and Asian Dollar Bonds
  3. Other debentures (non-convertible)
  4. Overseas options
    For all trades in these instruments [(b), (c) and (d)] regardless of contract value or nominal value, the brokerage is fully negotiable.
  5. Such other instruments as the Exchange may prescribe by way of any circulars, directives or guidelines issued by the Exchange from time to time
  6. Minimum brokerage
    With effect from 2 January 2008, the minimum brokerage rate is as follows:

    Category of Trade Minimum Brokerage Rate*
    Inter-broker Fully negotiable
    Institutional Fully negotiable
    Retail trades valued above RM100,000 0.3% of contract value
    Retail trades valued below RM100,000 0.6% of contract value
    Online routed retail trades (via ECOS)** & *** Fully negotiable
    Trades executed less than a board lot*** Fully negotiable
    Trades where cash upfront has been given prior to the execution of the trades*** Fully negotiable
    Same day buy and sell trades 0.15% of contract value
    *Fixed brokerage
    Always subjected to the fixed brokerage of RM2.00 on transaction of loan instruments and RM40.00 on any other transaction.
    ** Participating Organisation's Electronic Client-Ordering System approved by Bursa Malaysia.
    *** The minimum fixed brokerage of RM40.00 is not applicable for these transactions

Clearing Fees

  1. Novated
    0.03% of transaction value (payable by both buyer and seller) with a maximum of RM1000.00 per contract. There is no minimum fee imposed.
  2. Direct business
    0.03% of transaction value (payable by both buyer and seller) with a maximum of RM1000.00 per contract and a minimum of RM10.00.

Stamp Duty

The stamp duty chargeable on transactions on the stock market of Bursa Malaysia is:
  1. RM1.00 for RM1000.00 or fractional part of value of securities (payable by both buyer and seller), and effective 17 March 2003, the stamp duty shall be remitted to the maximum of RM200.
  2. All instruments relating to the issue of, offer for subscription, or purchase of, or invitation to subscribe or purchase, debentures approved by the Securities Commission under Section 32 of the Securities Commission Act, 1993, and the transfer of such debentures, are exempted from stamp duty.

Registration Fees

RM3.00 fee is charged per share certificate which is payable to the company registrar for issuance of new certificates.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Share Capital

A share is a security which represents a portion of the owner's capital in a business. Shareholders are the owners of the business and share the success or failure of the business. The performance of the business can often be measured by the amount of dividends shareholders receive and by the price of the share, quoted on the stock market. (Shares are also commonly refered to as stock).

The different types of shares which are traded on Bursa Malaysia include:
  1. Ordinary Shares

    Also called equity shares, this is the risk capital of a company. Ordinary shares give holders the rights of ownership in the company, such as the right to share in the profits, the right to vote in general meetings and to elect and dismiss directors. Obligations of ownership are also conferred and this may result in the loss of an investor's money if the company is unsuccessful. Ordinary shares usually form the bulk of a company's capital and have no special rights over other shares. In the event of liquidation, ordinary shares rank after all other liabilities of the company.
  2. Preference Shares

    These are shares which carry the right to dividend (normally fixed) which ranks for payment before that of ordinary shareholders. Preference shares may be preferred also as regards to distribution of assets upon dissolution of the company.

    Preference shares generally carry no voting rights, but voting rights may be made contingent upon failure to pay dividends on preference shares for a certain period of time.

    There are various types of preference shares:
    1. Participating preference shares are entitled to participate in the profits beyond the fixed dividends, by way of an additional fluctuating dividend if the company is successful.
    2. Cumulative preference shares are preference shares which, apart from having a preferential right to receive a fixed dividend ahead of ordinary shares, also carry the right of any arrears of the preference dividends which may have built up.
    3. Non-cumulative preference shares are preference shares which are not entitled to any arrears in dividends.
    4. Redeemable preference shares may be redeemed by the company at a stated redemption price on advance notice of a period of time. It is usual to set a redemption price above the par value to compensate the owner for the involuntary loss of his investment.
    5. Convertible preference shares are preference shares which carry the right to be made convertible, at the option of the holder, into another class of shares, normally into ordinary shares.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

Rights Issue

A rights issue gives the existing shareholders the right to subscribe for new ordinary shares at an issue price lower than the prevailing market price and at a ratio equivalent to their existing shareholding. Companies carry out a rights issue when they want to raise additional funds to finance their capital requirements.

In offering a rights issue, the company sends out a provisional allotment letter (PAL) to all existing shareholders informing them of the rights issue entitlement. Shareholders are required to follow all the instructions given in the PAL in subscribing their rights for the new shares. If you choose not to exercise your right, remember that the PAL can be sold to the open market (if quoted) or the entitlement can be renounced to someone else.

Often, you will see a category of 'A' shares listed in the newspapers and investment magazines. The listing of 'A' shares refer to the issue of shares not qualified to entitlements, such as dividends, bonus and rights issues. These shares will later merge with the existing shares after the entitlement date.

Bonus Issue

A bonus issue is the issue of new ordinary shares at no cost to existing shareholders but out of the company's reserves and given in direct proportion to the number of shares owned. Bonus issues are used to enlarge the capital base of the company and may also be used as a means of rewarding its existing shareholders. To be entitled to the bonus share, take note of the Ex-Date as only shares bought before the Ex-Date will be entitled to the bonus share.

The period from the day of announcement of the entitlement of bonus or rights issue or dividend to the day before the Ex-Date is commonly referred to as the cum-period. Normally, cum is a prefix meaning "with". A share that is cum-dividend means the buyer is entitled to a dividend currently attached to it. The same is true for cum-rights and cum-bonus.

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Derivatives

Derivatives are financial instruments used to manage one's exposure to today's volatile markets. A derivative product's value depends upon and is derived from an underlying instrument, such as commodity prices, interest rates, indices, and share prices.

Derivative instruments can be traded in an organised exchange or over-the-counter (OTC). Futures and options are essentially elementary derivative products mostly traded on exchanges. A futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell the underlying instrument at a specific time in the future for a specific price determined today.

An option however, provides the holder/buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell a certain quantity of the underlying instrument at a stipulated price within a specific time period by paying a premium.

The following 9 products are currently traded on the Exchange:
KLCI (FKLI) Futures
KLCI (OKLI) Options
3 Mth Month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate interest rate (FKB3) Futures
Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures
3-Year Malaysian Government Securities (FMG3) Futures
5-Year Malaysian Government Securities (FMG5) Futures
10-Year Malaysian Government Securities (FMGA) Futures
Crude Palm Kernel Oil (FPKO) Futures
Single Stock Futures (SSFs)
Ethylene OTC Futures Contract

(Source : Bursa Malaysia website)

Call Warrants

What are warrants?

A warrant gives the holder the opportunity to buy or sell a share at a future date for a fixed price. The two basic types of Warrants are "Call Warrants" and "Put Warrants". Call Warrants allow investors to profit from share price rises. Put Warrants allow investors to profit from share price falls.
A Call Warrant gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying share for a fixed price known as the "exercise price" at a future date. Taking up this right is know as "exercising" the warrant.
A Put Warrant gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying share to the Warrant Issuer for the exercise price (also known as "exercising" the warrant. )
NOTE: This is a hypothetical example.
  • The graph shows the percentage change in the value of a hypothetical share compared with the value change in a call warrant and a put warrant. It illustrates the increased exposure to share price movements which warrants provide.
  • During a 100 day investment period, the underlying share price falls by 10% (at Point A) and increases by 8% (at Point B).
  • The share price varies over an 18% range during the investment period. In contrast, the call warrant fluctuates within approximately a 75% range of the purchase price.
  • The put warrant also fluctuates within approximately an 80% range during the investment period but in an opposite direction to the call warrant.
    Exercise price
The agreed price is known as the exercise price. This is the price at which a warrant holder may buy or sell the underlying shares.
A call warrant is said to be out-of-the-money when the exercise price is higher than the share price and in-the-money when the exercise price is lower than the share price.

A call warrant will be worthless if the share price is lower than the exercise price on the expiry day. However, with upward movements in the share price, the holder can still earn excellent returns trading the warrant prior to the expiry date.
The opposite occurs for a put warrant. It will be in-the-money when the exercise price is above the share price and out-of-the-money when the exercise price is below the share price. With downward movements in the share price, the holder can make profits trading the put warrant prior to its expiry date.

Exercise style and expiry date

There are two styles of exercise for warrants - American and European. An American style warrant allows holders to exercise their warrants at any time up to and including their expiry date.
European style warrants allow conversion only on the expiry date.
Investors should also note the conversion ratio of a warrant. This is important in determining the quantity of warrants needed to be exercised to buy or sell one underlying share.

Warrants may sometimes be Cash Settled. They are usually European in style (that is they may not be exercised prior to expiry) and investors are given a cash amount equivalent to the amount the warrant expired "in-the-money." If for example a given warrant had a strike price of $10.00 and the stock price at expiry was $12.00 then the investor would receive $2.00 per warrant (assuming the conversion ratio was 1:1).

Why Trade Warrants

Gearing

Warrants cost only a fraction of the price of shares. However, they can provide investors with greater exposure to share price movements as their prices generally rise and fall more steeply than shares in percentage terms. This increased exposure can subsequently offer greater potential profit as a percentage of the capital invested.
Conversely warrants also expose investors to greater potential loss in percentage terms. However, you are never obliged to pay anything more than the initial price of the warrant, so the maximum amount you can lose is limited to the price paid.

Unlimited upside & limited downside

Although warrants can potentially multiply both gains and losses, investors can only ever lose the price of the warrant. Generally the cost of a warrant is significantly less than the price of the underlying share.

Low transaction costs

Trading Warrants typically costs less than trading the underlying shares. Currently no stamp duty is payable on the purchase or sale of cash settled Warrants and brokerage and interest costs are reduced because the price of Warrants is usually less than the underlying share price.

Ease of trade

Warrants are traded on the SEHK AMS3 system. The AMS3 system provides market transparency which allows stockbrokers to execute all trades quickly and effectively.


Insurance

Warrants can be used as a form of insurance to protect an existing share portfolio against a falling market. An investor with a holding in a particular stock who was nervous about the future direction the market could purchase put warrants instead of selling shares. This would allow the investor to retain share ownership without realising capital gains and without having full exposure to the downside risks.

Hedging

Releasing Share Capital

Call Warrants can also be used to free up capital invested in shares. An investor may sell existing share holdings and purchase a corresponding number of Call Warrants for a fraction of the price. The investor has maintained exposure to share price rises while releasing capital from the security holding.

Selecting a Warrant
To select the warrant best suited to your investment goals, we advise you to consider the following process.
To choose a warrant you should first look at the nature and performance of the underlying shares. This will assist in enabling you to make an informed decision about the anticipated movement of the stock.
The next criteria will be your view (positive or negative) on the stock. This will determine whether you select a call warrant or a put warrant.
Your selection will be further narrowed by the time frame of your view. Remember that time decay may erode your profits.
The amount of gearing you are seeking is also relevant. The effective gearing of a warrant is determined by the delta the relationship between the share price and the warrant price and the gearing ratio. Effective gearing is expressed as a multiple. The higher the multiple, the higher your returns or losses would be.
When comparing different warrants over the same share, you should be aware that warrants with high volume turnovers will not necessarily deliver higher returns.
By gaining an understanding of how warrant issuers determine the value of warrants, investors should be in a better position to develop an appropriate trading strategy.


Pricing
The value of a warrant is influenced by the five market variables outlined in the table below. The arrows indicate which direction the value of call or put warrants will move in response to a change in the corresponding variable in most situations.
Pricing Variables
Variable Change in variable Change in call
warrant price
Change in put
warrant price
Underlying share price
Dividend expectations
Volatility
Interest rate
Time to expiry

Share price

The underlying share price is the key driver of the warrant price. As the share price increases, the value of a call warrant should increase. Conversely, the value should fall as the share price falls.
The opposite occurs for put warrants. Put warrants should increase in value as the share price falls and decrease in value as the share price rises.
By successfully predicting the price direction of shares, investors can profit from trading warrants on positive and negative views.
The tables below demonstrate the anticipated movements of a call warrant and a put warrant investment. In estimating the returns an assumption has been made that there will be a 10% increase and a 10% decrease in the share price at the end of a 3 month investment period.

Investor purchases 10,000 XYZ Macquarie Call Warrants for $1.00 each.
XYZ's share price is $10.00.
Price in 3 months $9.00 $10.00 $11.00
of Warrants 10,000 10,000 10,000
Price in 3 months $0.40 $0.85 $1.50
Price $10,000 $10,000 $10,000
Proceeds $4,000 $8,500 $15,000
on Call Warrant (60)% (15)% 50%
on Share Investment (10)% 0% 10%

Clearly, when the share price increased, the warrant provided a better return than the underlying share. While the share price increased $1.00 (from $10.00 to $11.00), that is 10%, the call warrant increased $0.50 (from $1.00 to $1.50), providing a 50% return.
Note: When the share price remains constant at $10.00, the warrant price falls 15% (from $1.00 to $0.85) during the three month investment period. This is due to time decay.
Investor purchases 10,000 XYZ Macquarie Put Warrants for $1.00 each. XYZ's share price is $10.00.
Share Price in 3 months $9.00 $10.00 $11.00
Number of Warrants 10,000 10,000 10,000
Warrant Price in 3 months $1.50 $0.85 $0.40
Purchase Price $10,000 $10,000 $10,000
Sale Proceeds $15,000 $8,500 $4,000
Return on Put Warrant 50% (15)% (60)%
Return on Share Investment (10)% 0% 10%

When the share price decreased $1.00 (from $10.00 to $9.00), the warrant provided a 50% return to the warrant holder while the share holder sustained a 10% loss. This illustrates how an investor can profit from share price falls by holding put warrants.
By gaining an understanding of how issuers determine the value of warrants, investors should be in a better position to develop an appropriate trading strategy.

Delta

We have demonstrated that the direction of the warrant price is directly related to the direction of the underlying share price. Generally, warrants do not move cent for cent with the underlying shares. The relationship between the movement in the share price and the corresponding change in the warrant price is referred to as the delta.
A delta of 1 means that the value of the warrant should change one cent for every one cent change in the underlying share price. A delta of 1 also means the warrant is currently in-the-money and there is a 100% expectation that the warrant will expire in-the-money.
A delta of 0.5 means that there is only a 50% expectation that the warrant will expire in-the-money. Accordingly, it means that the value of the warrant should change by 0.5 cents for every one cent change in the underlying share price.
Deltas will change over time as the relationship between the Exercise Price and Share Price changes. Both delta and prices of warrants on this site are calculated on a daily basis.
While the delta is a useful measurement for investors wishing to track the daily movement of their warrants, it is also important to understand the principle of effective gearing.

Effective gearing

One simple measure of gearing is to determine how many warrants can be purchased for the cost of one share. For example, if the share costs $20 and the warrant $2, then the gearing is 10. The effective gearing of a warrant provides a realistic expectation of how much the warrant should outperform or underperform the underlying shares over a short period of time. Effective gearing is calculated by dividing the share price by the warrant price and multiplying this by the delta.

Effective Gearing = Share Price __
Warrant Price
X Delta
So it recognises that whilst you may be able to buy, say, 10 times as many warrants as shares, the warrants may not be moving cent for cent with the shares. For example, if the warrant used in the simple gearing example has a 50% delta, then the effective gearing is only 50% x 10 = 5.
An effective gearing multiple of 5 implies that every $1.00 invested in the warrant could equate to $5.00 invested in the underlying share.
Investors should be aware that the effective gearing multiple does change and therefore is only applicable for short periods of time.

Time to expiry

The greater the time to expiry, the greater the time value of the warrant. This is because the warrant has more time to perform or move into-the-money.
The time value of warrants can be expected to gradually decline in value to zero over the life of the warrants. This gradual decline in the time value is effectively part of the daily cost of holding a warrant.
An alternative way of understanding time decay for warrants is to consider it as equivalent to the daily decay of an insurance policy. The policy falls in value each day it approaches its expiry date because the period of insurance is decreasing.
Similarly the opportunity for the warrant to move into-the-money is decreasing and therefore the warrant value will decrease. In our hypothetical examples, time decay is responsible for a 15 percent decrease in the warrant price when there is no change in the share price over the three month investment period. While the intrinsic value has remained unchanged, the time value has decreased to produce an overall decline in the warrant price.

Dividends

Investors in warrants do not receive the dividends paid on the underlying shares, nor or do they directly participate in rights or bonus issues.
However, in valuing warrants, issuers estimate the expected dividend stream of the underlying shares. This means that call warrants should not dramatically fall in price when the underlying share trades ex-dividend. Similarly, put warrants should not substantially increase in price. Generally, in the case of a rights or bonus issue, the terms of the warrant are adjusted so that the investor is not disadvantaged.

Volatility

Volatility is a standard measure of risk on the underlying shares. Issuers will forecast the expected volatility of the share price for the life of the warrant. The higher the volatility, the higher the risk on the underlying shares and therefore the more expensive the warrant will become.

Interest Rates

For each call warrant issued, issuers allocate funds to purchase underlying shares. If the cost of borrowing (ie. the interest rate) increases, the cost will be reflected in a corresponding increase in the warrant price.
Similarly, a put warrant will decrease in value when interest rates rise.
Warrants derive their value from another financial instrument such as shares, currency, an index or units in a unit trust. While returns from investing in warrants may outperform returns on shares, there are a number of additional factors determining warrant values, hence they are seen as more risky than trading ordinary shares.


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